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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0327

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 31 17:55:14 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 311755
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311754=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-312000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0327
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1254 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

    Areas affected...Southern Georgia into North Florida

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88...

    Valid 311754Z - 312000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential will likely continue into more of
    southern Georgia and North Florida. An additional severe
    thunderstorm watch for parts of these areas is probable this
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...With surface temperatures ahead of the ongoing
    convective line reaching the low 80s F, MLCAPE has risen to around
    2000 J/kg. As the line progresses east, the expectation is for
    continued damaging gust potential into southeast Georgia and North
    Florida. There will be some waning influence of the upper-level
    trough and shear will remain greater to the north/west. This makes
    the intensity of the line somewhat uncertain with eastward extent. A
    severe thunderstorm watch will most likely be considered for
    portions of southeast Georgia and North Florida.

    Regarding a QLCS tornado threat, KEOX data suggest that there were
    two brief TDS in far southeastern Alabama. Regional VAD data
    continue to show limited low-level hodograph curvature. Trends in
    the convective line and the environment continue to suggest the
    possibility of the QLCS tornado, though any circulation should be
    brief.

    ..Wendt.. 03/31/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7c1rk9GbtNhNJrpZE-FCdHvGN1E-oXmlGjER4Q471L9Lo4H0XhsROTTZKd-LnABUNUaWLnl-a= Tl7Nh2HK8qRXw3z0iE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

    LAT...LON 30228592 31408544 31858514 31858451 31718208 31578148
    31128153 30228149 29808233 30228592=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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