829
AXNT20 KNHC 171000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Mar 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed
near 24N54W. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate gale
force winds in the northern semicircle of the low, particularly
from 25N to 29N between 50W and 55W. These winds are within a
larger area of fresh to strong easterly winds that covers roughly
the waters from 22N to 31N between 41W and 62W. These winds are
the result of the pressure gradient between the low pressure and
strong high pressure located N of the low. Gale conditions will
likely last through tonight, then diminish to fresh to strong
winds through Tue morning. This pattern will also support rough to
very rough seas east of 70W through mid week. The low will move
toward the NW over the next 24 hours, then northward through mid-
week while weakening.

W Atlantic Gale Warning: An occluded low is expected to develop in
the vicinity of a cold front by midweek. The front is already
moving across the W Atlantic, analyzed from 31N79W to 28N81W. Gale
conditions will begin on Tue night near 29N71W, then drift E
through Wed as the system moves E. Rough to very rough seas will
prevail with these winds.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Liberia/Sierra
Leone border near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 03N16W.
The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 01S30W to the coast of NE Brazil
near 02.5S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300
nm on either side of the boundaries.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 26N82W to 21N87W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted ahead of the front, affecting the Yucatan
Channel. This convective activity is also reaching the Yucatan
Channel. High pressure of 1025 mb centered over the NW Gulf
follows the front. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds and
moderate to rough seas are noted in the wake of the front while
gentle to moderate SW winds are moderate seas are occurring ahead
of the front. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms.

For the forecast, the front will continue to move southeast and
away from the area this morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds
behind the front will prevail though tonight. Looking ahead, high
pressure will settle over the basin through mid week. As the high
pressure moves toward N Florida, fresh to strong southerly return
flow will set-up over the NW Gulf tonight into Tue. Looking ahead,
the next cold front is expected to enter the Gulf region by mid week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends across the Bahamas and Cuba into the NW
Caribbean while a cold front is moving across the SE Gulf of
Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is allowing for
fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean and
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the NW
Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia, and 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the Yucatan
Channel ahead of a cold front.

For the forecast, the cold front will enter the NW Caribbean this
morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will
follow the front, which is forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras by tonight, and from the Windward Passage to
near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua on Tue before dissipating Tue
night into Wed. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail
across the NW Carribbean through mid week. In addition, NE fresh
to strong winds will pulse across southern Cuba, the Windward
Passage, and south of Haiti through the same period due to a
developing low pressure north of the area. Seas in this area will
range from 4 to 8 ft. High pressure over the central north
Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will support pulsing
winds to fresh to strong speeds at night offshore Colombia
throughout the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic associated
with a strengthening low pressure. Another Gale Warning will
develop in the W Atlantic by midweek in the vicinity of an
occluded low. Refer to the Special Features section for more details.

Aside from the gale areas, high pressure ridge extends across the
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. A cold front reaches
the Canary Islands followed by moderate to fresh winds and 8 to 15
ft seas in NW swell, east of 35W. Moderate to fresh trade winds
dominate the tropical Atlantic with seas of 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, as the above mentioned low moves
NW over the next 24 hours, gale-force winds east of 55W will
prevail through tonight. Winds will then diminishing to fresh to
strong through Tue morning. This pattern will also support rough
to very rough seas east of 70W through mid week. Farther west, a
strong cold front has pushed off the SE United States coast, with
fresh to near-gale force winds and rough seas in its vicinity. The
front will reach from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern
Cuba Tue morning, and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed morning. By
mid week, a low pressure system may develop along this front
supporting near-gale to gale force winds and very rough seas
between Bermuda and the Bahamas.

$$
ERA
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568
AXNT20 KNHC 191039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Mar 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1025 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Complex low pressure system near Bermuda is
producing gale force N to NW winds north of 27N between 69W and
74W, along the western side of the low's circulation. Building
seas of 18-22 ft are within the area of gale force winds. Strong
to near gale force cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas are
found over much of the SW North Atlantic. This area of low
pressure will continue moving south to southeast today, supporting
gale-force winds and very rough seas between Bermuda and the
Bahamas through tonight. Peak seas are forecast to reach 23 ft
later this morning, with the area of 12 ft or greater seas
expanding to cover much of the western Atlantic offshore zones
north of 20N. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the
region beginning Thu night as the low shifts northeastward and
steadily weakens.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to move off
the Texas coast later this morning and quickly proceed eastward.
Strong to near gale-force N winds will follow the front, except
for gale-force NW-N winds off Veracruz Thu afternoon. Seas will
build to 9 ft. Winds and seas will diminish Thu night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W, continuing southwestward to 02N30W. The ITCZ
extends from 02N30W to near the far northern coast of Brazil near
01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed south of 05N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about the
Gale Warning off Veracruz.

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over Florida and
lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico support fresh to strong
southerly winds over much of the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas in
these waters are 6-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas
will continue through this morning across the western Gulf waters
due to a tight pressure gradient. A cold front will move off the
coast of Texas later this morning and travel quickly eastward. The
front will reach from southern Alabama to Veracruz tonight, from
Cape Coral to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu afternoon, and exit the
basin Thu night into early Fri. The front will be followed by
fresh to strong N winds and rough seas, except for minimal gales
off Veracruz Thu afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish across
the basin on Fri morning with high pressure establishing across
the basin afterward. Fresh to strong E winds will develop off NW
Yucatan and spread into the western Gulf waters Sat night into Sun morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure over Florida supports fresh to strong northerly
winds in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and off the Tiburon
Peninsula of Haiti. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Fresh to
strong NE winds and moderate seas are noted off NW Colombia in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are evident in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly trade winds will
prevail through early next week in the central Caribbean. Building
ridge north of the area will result in an increase in areal
coverage of the winds Fri through the early next week. Gale-force
winds will pulse offshore Colombia at night on Sat and Sun, along
with rough to very rough seas. Fresh to near gale-force winds will
prevail in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean during
the weekend and through early next week. The aforementioned ridge
will also sustain fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba and
the Windward Passage through tonight. Looking ahead, the tail of a
cold front will enter the NW Caribbean early Fri and dissipate Fri evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information about the
Atlantic Gale Warning in the SW North Atlantic.

Outside of the Gale Warning area, seas 8 ft or greater are north
of 20N between 46W and 80W. A cold front, associated in part with
the gale force low, extends from 31N62W to 25N61W to 19N19W along
the north coast of Hispaniola. Fresh to strong SW to S winds
prevail to 43W and north of 22N. Weak 1007 mb low pressure
analyzed near 30N57W should be absorbed by the gale force low
pressure this morning.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge. The pressure gradient between this ridge and
lower pressures north of the area result in fresh to strong
cyclonic winds and rough seas north of 27N and east of 35W.
Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas prevail
south of 22N between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, complex low pressure system located
near Bermuda supports strong to gale-force W-NW winds and rough
to very rough seas across the SW North Atlantic waters. The
strongest winds and highest seas are found north of 27N and
between 69W and 74W. The broad non-tropical system is forecast to
make a counter-clockwise loop and turn north on Thu, moving away
from our area. The strong to gale-force winds and rough to very
rough seas will continue through tonight, then gradually diminish
through Fri as the winds and seas slide eastward. Looking ahead,
fresh to strong southerly winds will develop over the NE Florida
offshore waters on Thu afternoon ahead of a strong cold front
forecast to enter the NW offshore waters late Thu. Strong to near
gale-force W-NW winds and rough to very rough seas will follow
this front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to the central
Bahamas late Fri. The front will move E of the area on Sat,
allowing high pressure to build in and winds and seas to diminish.

$$
Delgado
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973
AXNT20 KNHC 201029
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Mar 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1025 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A weakening, broad area of low pressure
centered near Bermuda continues to produce strong to gale-force
cyclonic winds over much of the SW North Atlantic, especially
between 55W and 75W. These winds result in rough to very rough
seas, peaking near 17 ft. A cold front is analyzed from 31N54W to
17N62W. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 20N and
between 49W and 60W. Winds and seas will gradually diminish as
the system lifts N of the area later today.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A fast-moving cold front extends
from SE Louisiana to near Tuxpan, Mexico. Marine observations
indicate that fresh to near gale-force northerly winds are
occurring behind the front. Gusts may occasionally reach gale
force early this morning. The front is forecast to reach from
Tampa, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon. Brief minimal
gales are expected off Veracruz with the passage of the front this
afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected the strongest
winds. Winds and seas will diminish in the SW Gulf tonight into Fri morning.

SW Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a ridge
north of the Caribbean and lower pressures in N Colombia will
tighten leading to the development of pulsing gales at night over
the offshore waters N of Colombia from Fri through Sun. Rough to
very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Winds and
seas will diminish by the middle of next week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, continuing southwestward to 04N23W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N23W to 02S43W. Isolated showers are observed
within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about the
Gale Warning expected off Veracruz.

A cold front extends from SE Louisiana to near Tuxpan, Mexico. A
few showers are noted near the frontal boundary. Recent marine
observations indicate that strong to near gale- force NW-N winds
follow the frontal boundary, especially in the NW Gulf waters.
Gusts may occasionally reach gale force this morning. Seas behind
the frontal boundary are 7-10 ft. Fresh to strong NW winds and
moderate seas are occurring off Veracruz. In the remainder of the
basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the front is forecast to reach from Tampa,
Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Thu afternoon before it moves E of the
basin early on Fri. Brief minimal gales are expected off Veracruz
with the passage of the front Thu afternoon. Very rough seas are
expected the strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish across
the basin Fri morning through Sat night as high pressure develops
over the NE Gulf. A surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula will
move into the Bay of Campeche at night Fri through Sun, enhancing
winds to fresh to strong speeds in the Peninsula adjacent waters.
Looking ahead, the next cold front will come off Texas Sun night into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
expected over the waters off NW Colombia.

A stationary front extends from the Leeward Islands to just north
of the ABC islands. A few weak showers are seen near the boundary.
The rest of the basin is dominated by a 1018 mb high pressure
system centered near the NW Bahamas. Fresh to strong NE winds and
moderate seas are occurring in the south-central Caribbean due to
the pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower
pressures in northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds
and moderate seas are found in the north-central and SE Caribbean,
Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, building ridge north of the area will sustain fresh
to strong easterly trade winds over the central Caribbean through
the forecast period. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned
ridge and lower pressureS over N Colombia will result in near
gale-force winds across the south-central waters Fri night through
Mon night, with pulsing gales at night offshore Colombia Fri
through Sun. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the
strongest winds Fri night through the middle of next week. Looking
ahead, the tail of a cold front will enter the NW Caribbean early
Fri and dissipate Fri evening. The aforementioned building high
pressure will result in fresh to strong NE winds resuming in the
Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba Fri evening through Sun
night, and east winds of the same speed at night in the Gulf of
Honduras Sun and Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information about the
Atlantic Gale Warning in the W Atlantic.

The SW North Atlantic is dominated by the expansive low pressure
system discussed in the Special Features, especially east of 75W.
West of 75W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are noted.
The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a narrow
ridge centered well west of the Azores. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and a strong low pressure east of Portugal
result in moderate to locally strong W-NW winds north of 26N and
east of 30W. Seas in these waters are 10-14 ft. Moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft are found south of 21N and
between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening, broad area of low
pressure centered near Bermuda continues to produce strong to
gale-force cyclonic winds over much of the SW North Atlantic,
especially between 55W and 75W. These winds result in rough to
very rough seas. Winds and seas will gradually diminish as the
system lifts N of the area later today. Meanwhile, a cold front
currently moving across the Gulf of Mexico will sustain fresh to
strong southerly winds in the NE Florida offshore waters this
afternoon. The strong front will enter the basin this evening and
strong to near gale-force NW winds and rough to very rough seas
will follow. The front is which is forecast to reach from 31N71W
to Andros Island and W Cuba Fri morning, and from 31N57W to the
southern Bahamas Sat morning where it stall before dissipating
late Sat. High pressure will build NE to E of the Bahamas in the
wake of the front the remainder weekend. Looking ahead, a weak
cold front may enter the NW offshore waters Mon night.

$$
Delgado
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631
AXNT20 KNHC 240830
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Mar 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between an Atlantic
high pressure ridge and the Colombian low is supporting strong to
gale force winds off the coast of Colombia, where seas are
peaking near 14 ft. Winds and seas will diminish today. Another
pulse of gale force winds are expected offshore of Colombia
tonight, with seas building to 13 ft late tonight in the area of
strongest winds. Winds will diminish below gale force Tuesday
morning, with strong to near gale force winds then pulsing off
Colombia through at least midweek.

Gale Warning E of 35W: the pressure gradient between high pressure
located near the Azores and lower pressures in NW Africa supports
near gale force NE to N winds in the Agadir marine zone of Meteo-
France. Winds over these waters are forecast to increase to gale-
force today as the high shifts eastward. Seas are expected to
increase to 10 to 13 ft during this period.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 08N12W and continues
southward to 01N29W. The ITCZ extends from 01N29W to coastal
Brazil near 02S40W. Scattered clusters of moderate to strong
convection are noted from the equator to 06N between 08W and 23W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the SW Gulf just west of the Yucatan
peninsula. High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf. The
pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to
locally strong winds NW of the Yucatan peninsula. Seas of 4-5 ft
are noted over these waters. Over the NE Gulf, Light winds and
seas of 2 ft or less prevail. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas
of 2-4 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail over the Gulf,
supporting moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds over the
western and central Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the
eastern basin into mid-week. A surface trough will develop over
the Yucatan Peninsula and move into the Bay of Campeche nightly
through early this week, supporting pulses of fresh to locally
strong winds over adjacent waters. The next cold front will skirt
the NE Gulf with little impact tonight into Tue. High pressure
building into the basin in its wake will lead to moderate to fresh
SE winds and building seas across the NW Gulf by Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect offshore Colombia. Please, refer to
the Special Features section above for more information.

Aside from the area of gale force winds off Colombia, fresh to
near gale winds, and seas of 8-12 ft, are over the Central
Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-7 ft are over the
Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft,
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds offshore of
Colombia and Venezuela will pulse to gale force offshore of
Colombia tonight, with nightly pulses to near gale likely through
at least mid-week. Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds will
pulse in the Windward Passage tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds
will extend across the Gulf of Honduras into mid- week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Agadir marine zone of Meteo-
France.. Please, refer to the Special Features section above for
more information.

A surface trough extends from 31N48W to 22N56W. Light to gentle
winds, with seas of 7 to locally 8 ft are in the vicinity of the
trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic
discussion waters. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 2-5 ft, are
W of the trough. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft,
cover the remainder of the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the western
Atlantic will support gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas
north of 22N early this week. The area of high pressure will shift
eastward today enabling a weak cold front to move off the
northeast Florida coast tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds are
likely to pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola into mid
week. Another cold front may move into waters between northeast
Florida and Bermuda Wed.

$$
AL
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